On behalf of Regionetz GmbH, Fraunhofer FIT and the IAEW of RWTH Aachen investigated the impact of the heat transition on the gas network infrastructure across the entire supply area as part of a gas network planning project. The central question was how quickly a decline in gas demand can be expected and what consequences this has for the operational relevance of individual gas pipelines.

First, an inventory analysis of the current heat demand in the entire supply area was carried out. A clustering method was used, allowing the results from representative sub-areas to be extrapolated to the entire area. Building on this, future heat demand and the expected development of heating technologies were simulated at the building level under various scenarios. To ensure consistent future scenarios, the study also incorporated scenarios from Aachen’s municipal heat planning.

In three focus areas, the study examined which gas pipelines will remain operationally important until 2045 and which could be decommissioned early. The results show that, despite a substantial decline in gas demand, most of the existing infrastructure will still be needed to supply the remaining decentralized customers. The analysis highlights that a coordinated approach to retiring gas networks will be crucial for a cost-efficient heat transition.